关键词: 气候;代尺度;干湿;模式;预测

Abstract:

In this paper, the technique of wavelet analysis and the theory of equilibrium state are combined to propose modeling technique of climate catastrophe points. Comparing with traditional statistic modeling technique, this technique has the sense of pure dynamics and is able to determine catastrophe points rigorously.Comparing with traditional method of dynamical numerical forecast, this method has made full use of the historical information provided by data and been able to work out the transition time of the climate states with different time scale rigorously.Moreover, the physical meaning of the model is very clear and the calc ulation is fairly simple.

Key words: Wavelets; , Catastrophe point, Climatic modeling; , Forecast