封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例

数学物理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 540-544.

• 论文 • 上一篇

封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例

程欣欣,饶亚情,黄刚*()

^{中国地质大学数学与物理学院武汉 430074}

收稿日期:2020-02-21 出版日期:2020-04-26 发布日期:2020-05-21
通讯作者: 黄刚 E-mail:huanggang@cug.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(11571326)

COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space: A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises

Xinxin Cheng,Yaqing Rao,Gang Huang*()

^{School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074}

Received:2020-02-21 Online:2020-04-26 Published:2020-05-21
Contact: Gang Huang E-mail:huanggang@cug.edu.cn
Supported by:
the NSFC(11571326)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

该文以新型冠状病毒（SARS-Cov-2）在日本钻石公主号邮轮上传播为例，通过建立简单的易感者-感染者传染病模型，研究在封闭空间中新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的传播机制.动力学分析和数值拟合预测了疾病传播过程和最终结果，讨论了不同隔离措施对疾病传播进程的影响，并给出防控策略建议.

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 传染病模型

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the transmission of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) on Japan Diamond Princess Cruises as an example. By establishing a simple susceptible-infected epidemic model, the transmission mechanism of NCP in an enclosed space is established. Dynamic analysis and numerical fitting predict the disease transmission process and the final results, we estimate the infection rate and evaluate the effect of quarantine, and some suggestions for prevention and control strategies are given.

Key words: Novel coronavirus pneumonia, Epidemic model

中图分类号:

O175.1

程欣欣,饶亚情,黄刚. 封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例[J]. 数学物理学报, 2020, 40(2): 540-544.

Xinxin Cheng,Yaqing Rao,Gang Huang. COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space: A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises[J]. Acta mathematica scientia,Series A, 2020, 40(2): 540-544.

图/表 3

参考文献 5

1	国家卫生健康委员会.截至2月20日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况. (2020-02-21)[2020-02-21]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/ac1e98495cb04d36b0d0a4e1e7fab545.shtml.
	National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. An update of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia outbreak as of 24:00 on 20 February. (2020-02-21)[2020-02-21].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/ac1e98495cb04d36b0d0a4e1e7fab545.shtml
2	World Health Organization(WHO). Coronavirus. (2020-01-23)[2020-01-23]. http://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
3	National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Field Briefing:Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases. (2020-02-19)[2020-02-19]. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html
4	马知恩, 周义仓. 传染病动力学的数学建模与研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2004
	Ma Z E , Zhou Y C . Mathematical Modeling and Research of Infectious Disease Dynamics. Beijing: Science Press, 2004
5	严阅, 陈瑜, 刘可伋, 等. 基于一类时滞动力学系统对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的建模和预测. 中国科学:数学, 2020, 50 (3): 385- 392
	Yan Y , Chen Y , Liu K J , et al. Modeling and prediction for the trend of outbreak of NCP based on a time-delay dynamic system. Scientia Sinica Mathematica, 2020, 50 (3): 385- 392

日期$t_i$	$2/1$	$2/4$	$2/6$	$2/7$	$2/8$	$2/9$	$2/10$	$2/12$	$2/13$	$2/15$	$2/16$	$2/17$	$2/18$
人数$I_i$	1	$11$	21	62	65	71	136	175	219	286	356	455	543

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封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例

COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space: A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises

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