关键词: 失效概率, 只有一个失效数据, E-Bayes估计, 多层Bayes估计

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new parameter estimation method, named E-Bayesian estimation method, to estimate failure probability. In the case of data only one failure, the definition of E-Bayesian estimation of the failure probability is provided, moreover, the formulas of
E-Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimation, and the properties of E-Bayesian estimation of the failure probability are
also provided. Finally, calculations are performed according practical problem, which shows that the provided method in the paper is practicable and easy to operate.

Key words: Failure probability, Data only one failure, E-Bayesian estimation, Hierarchical Bayesian estimation