封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the transmission of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) on Japan Diamond Princess Cruises as an example. By establishing a simple susceptible-infected epidemic model, the transmission mechanism of NCP in an enclosed space is established. Dynamic analysis and numerical fitting predict the disease transmission process and the final results, we estimate the infection rate and evaluate the effect of quarantine, and some suggestions for prevention and control strategies are given.

Key words: Novel coronavirus pneumonia, Epidemic model

CLC Number:

O175.1

Xinxin Cheng,Yaqing Rao,Gang Huang. COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space: A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises[J].Acta mathematica scientia,Series A, 2020, 40(2): 540-544.

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	National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. An update of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia outbreak as of 24:00 on 20 February. (2020-02-21)[2020-02-21].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/ac1e98495cb04d36b0d0a4e1e7fab545.shtml
2	World Health Organization(WHO). Coronavirus. (2020-01-23)[2020-01-23]. http://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
3	National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Field Briefing:Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases. (2020-02-19)[2020-02-19]. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html
4	马知恩, 周义仓. 传染病动力学的数学建模与研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2004
	Ma Z E , Zhou Y C . Mathematical Modeling and Research of Infectious Disease Dynamics. Beijing: Science Press, 2004
5	严阅, 陈瑜, 刘可伋, 等. 基于一类时滞动力学系统对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的建模和预测. 中国科学:数学, 2020, 50 (3): 385- 392
	Yan Y , Chen Y , Liu K J , et al. Modeling and prediction for the trend of outbreak of NCP based on a time-delay dynamic system. Scientia Sinica Mathematica, 2020, 50 (3): 385- 392

日期$t_i$	$2/1$	$2/4$	$2/6$	$2/7$	$2/8$	$2/9$	$2/10$	$2/12$	$2/13$	$2/15$	$2/16$	$2/17$	$2/18$
人数$I_i$	1	$11$	21	62	65	71	136	175	219	286	356	455	543

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COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space: A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises

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