儿童手足口病的数学建模和计算机模拟

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儿童手足口病的数学建模和计算机模拟

李华,刘三红,方奕乐,张兴安

Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Children

Hua Li,Sanhong Liu,Yile Fang,Xingan Zhang

表 2 儿童HFMD传播常微分方程模型(未注射疫苗)

$\left\{\begin{array}{l} \frac{{\rm d}S}{{\rm d}t}=\mu(N-S)-\beta S(I+H)/N+\gamma_{3}R, \\[5pt] \frac{{\rm d}E}{{\rm d}t}=\beta S(I+H)/N-\alpha E-\mu E, \\[5pt] \frac{{\rm d}I}{{\rm d}t}=\alpha(1-\rho)E-(\gamma_{1}+\mu+\delta)I, \\[5pt] \frac{{\rm d}H}{{\rm d}t}=\alpha\rho E-(\gamma_{2}+\mu+\delta)H, \\[5pt] \frac{{\rm d}R}{{\rm d}t}=\gamma_{1}I+\gamma_{2}H-(\mu+\gamma_{3})R. \end{array} \right.$